冬季中国东北极端低温事件环流背景特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李尚锋  姜大膀  廉毅  尹路婷 《大气科学》2018,42(5):963-976

利用1961~2014年CN05.2逐日温度数据,对冬季东北极端低温事件进行了定义,并按其发生时冷空气对中国东部（105°E以东）的影响范围,将其分为第一类和第二类极端低温事件,其中前者局限在东北,而后者则扩展至中国东部大部分地区。分析表明,在年代际时间尺度上,第一类极端低温事件强度减弱,而第二类的则增加;对持续天数而言,第二类极端低温事件的在减少,而第一类在1990年代以前也持续减少,但是1990年代之后急剧增加;2月份总的极端低温事件发生天数最多,其在1990年代以前要远大于12月和1月份,且在1990年代以前总体在减少,以后则增加;850 hPa风场分析显示,第二类极端低温事件中来自贝加尔湖的西北路径冷空气比第一类的要强,而来自鄂霍次克海的东北路径冷空气则相反;在300 hPa的E-P通量散度场上,这两类极端低温事件中东北都处于波动能量辐散中心,第二类极端低温事件发生时罗斯贝波波动能量传播比第一类时的要弱,第一类发生时则纬向传播比较明显,而且波动中心值都比较大;在位势高度距平场的谐波分析中,长波槽同位相扰动叠加在超长波槽上更易导致极端低温事件的发生。  相似文献   

A comparison of scenario-based hybrid bilevel and multi-objective location-allocation models for earthquake emergency shelters: a case study in the central area of Beijing,China     

Wei Xu  Yunjia Ma  Xiujuan Zhao  Ying Li  Lianjie Qin  Juan Du 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(2):236-256

The accurate location and allocation of disaster emergency shelters are key components of effective urban planning and emergency management. Various models have been developed to solve the location-allocation problem, but gaps remain with regard to model realism and associated applicability. For the available location and allocation models of earthquake emergency shelters, uncertainty with respect to earthquake hazard, population exposure, rate of damage to buildings and the effects of evacuee behavior are often neglected or oversimplified. Moreover, modifying the models can be an alternative means of improving the solution quality when the optimization algorithm has difficulty coping with a complex, high-dimensional problem. This article develops a scenario-based hybrid bilevel model that addresses the concerns related to high-dimensional complexity and provides a higher degree of realism by incorporating the uncertainties of population dynamics and earthquake damage scenarios into location-allocation problems for earthquake emergency shelters. A modified particle swarm optimization algorithm combined with a simulated annealing algorithm was applied to derive solutions using the hybrid bilevel model and a conventional multi-objective model, and the solutions obtained using the two models were then compared. The novel features of the study include the hybrid bilevel model that considers the dynamic number of evacuees and its implementation for earthquake emergency shelter location and allocation. The results show that the solutions significantly differ between daytime and nighttime. When applied to the multi-objective model, the optimization algorithm is time consuming and may only find the local optima and provide suboptimal solutions in the considered scenarios with more evacuees. By contrast, the hybrid bilevel model shows more desirable performance because it significantly reduces the dimensionality of the location-allocation problem based on a two-step-to-reach approach. The proposed hybrid bilevel model is proven to be useful for optimal shelter allocation, and the presented results can be used as a reference for balancing the interests of the government and residents during the planning of shelters in Beijing.  相似文献   

Influence of Low-frequency Solar Forcing on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on HadCM3 and Observations     

Jiapeng MIAO  Tao WANG  Huijun WANG  Yongqi GAO 《大气科学进展》2018,35(9):1205-1215

In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency solar forcing on the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)by analyzing a four-member ensemble of 600-year simulations performed with Had CM3(Hadley Centre Coupled Model,version 3). We find that the EAWM is strengthened when total solar irradiance(TSI) increases on the multidecadal time scale. The model results indicate that positive TSI anomalies can result in the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, causing negative sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic. Especially for the subtropical North Atlantic, the negative SST anomalies can excite an anomalous Rossby wave train that moves from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Greenland Sea and finally to Siberia. In this process, the positive sea-ice feedback over the Greenland Sea further enhances the Rossby wave. The wave train can reach the Siberian region, and strengthen the Siberian high. As a result, low-level East Asian winter circulation is strengthened and the surface air temperature in East Asia decreases. Overall,when solar forcing is stronger on the multidecadal time scale, the EAWM is typically stronger than normal. Finally, a similar linkage can be observed between the EAWM and solar forcing during the period 1850–1970.  相似文献   

MEASUREMENTS OF PARTICLE NUMBER SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS AND NEW PARTICLE FORMATION EVENTS DURING WINTER IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION, CHINA     

谭浩波  银燕  李菲  刘显通  陈柏纬  邓涛  邓雪娇  万齐林  吴兑 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(2):191-199

Particle number size distribution(PNSD) between 10 nm and 20 μm were measured in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region in winter 2011.The average particle number concentration of the nucleation mode(10-20 nm),Aitken mode(20-100 nm),accumulation mode(100 nm-1μm) and coarse mode(1-20 μm) particles were 1 552,7 470,4 012,and 19 cm-3,respectively.The volume concentration of accumulation mode particles with peak at 300 nm accounted for over 70% of the total volume concentration.Diurnal variations and dependencies on meteorological parameters of PNSD were investigated.The diurnal variation of nucleation mode particles was mainly influenced by new particle formation events,while the diurnal variation of Aitken mode particles correlated to the traffic emission and the growth process of nucleation mode particles.When the PRD region was controlled by a cold high pressure,conditions of low relative humidity,high wind speed and strong radiation are favorable for the occurrence of new particle formation(NPF) events.The frequency of occurrence of NPF events was 21.3% during the whole measurement period.Parameters describing NPF events,including growth rate(GR) and source rate of condensable vapor(Q),were slightly larger than those in previous literature.This suggests that intense photochemical and biological activities may be the source of condensable vapor for particle growth,even during winter in the PRD.  相似文献   

从Rossby波能量频散理论到准定常行星波动力学研究的发展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄荣辉  皇甫静亮  刘永  杜振彩  陈国森  陈文  陆日宇 《大气科学》2016,40(1):3-21

本文是为纪念叶笃正院士诞辰百周年和他对大气动力学发展的重大贡献而撰写的.叶先生在20世纪40年代所提出的罗斯贝波能量频散理论不仅至今仍广泛应用于天气预报,而且开创了准定常行星波动力学的研究.在罗斯贝波频散理论的启迪和引领下,行星波动力学和大气环流异常遥相关的研究取得重要进展.特别是关于准定常行星波在二维和三维球面大气的传播特征以及北半球夏季大气环流异常的EAP(East Asia-Pacific)型和"丝绸之路(Silk Road)"型遥相关及其机理已做出系统的研究,本文简要地回顾这些研究.并且,本文还回顾了在叶先生所提出罗斯贝波能量频散理论的引领下,近年来我们关于东亚冬、夏季风和我国气候灾害的年际和年代际变化的内动力学机理研究所取得的进展.  相似文献   

基于自适应膨胀因子的模糊覆盖分级方法     

孙娟娟  江南  刘缵武 《测绘科学技术学报》2007,24(5):384-386

分级界限的确定一直都是学者们关注的焦点,而如何确定分级数则往往被忽略了.根据模糊覆盖和膨胀因子的定义,提出了一种确定1维数据分级数的分级方法:首先通过覆盖半径做一个模糊覆盖,利用自膨胀因子对这个覆盖进行扩张,直到不能再向外扩张为止,这一级就确定了;然后进行下一级的确定.该方法不仅可以自动确定数据的分级数,而且克服了分级结果对参数的敏感性.最后用实验证明了方法的有效性.  相似文献   

Stirling数的概率表示的新应用     

毛俊超  祝丹忱  赵熙强 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2006,36(Z1):222-224

运用两类Stirling数的概率表示得到两类Stirling数的一些特殊值,证明并得到了一些有关两类Stirling数的新的递推公式和恒等式,从而丰富发展了孙平、王天明关于“Stirling数的概率表示和应用”中的内容。  相似文献   

Reynolds number dependence of mixing in a lock-exchange system from direct numerical and large eddy simulations     

Tamay M. zgkmen  Traian Iliescu  Paul F. Fischer 《Ocean Modelling》2009,30(2-3):190-206

Turbulent mixing of water masses of different temperatures and salinities is an important process for both coastal and large-scale ocean circulation. It is, however, difficult to capture computationally. One of the reasons is that mixing in the ocean occurs at a wide range of complexity, with the Reynolds number reaching , or even higher.In this study, we continue to investigate whether large eddy simulation (LES) can be a reliable computational tool for stratified mixing in turbulent oceanic flows. LES is attractive because it can be times faster than a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of stratified mixing in turbulent flows. Before using the LES methodology to compute mixing in realistic oceanic flows, however, a careful assessment of the LES sensitivity with respect to Re needs to be performed first. The main objectives of this study are: (i) to investigate the performance of different LES models at high Re, such as those encountered in oceanic flows; and (ii) to study how mixing varies as a function of Re. To this end, as a benchmark we use the lock-exchange problem, which is described by unambigous and simple initial and boundary conditions. The background potential energy, which accurately quantifies irreversible mixing in an enclosed system, is used as the main criterion in a posteriori testing of LES.This study has two main achievements. The first is that we investigate the accuracy of six combinations of two different classes of LES models, namely eddy-viscosity and approximate deconvolution types, for 3×10³Re3×10⁴, for which DNS data is computed. We find that all LES models almost always provide significantly more accurate results than cases without LES models. Nevertheless, no single LES model that is persistently superior to others over this Re range could be identified. Then, an ensemble of the four best performing LES models is selected in order to estimate mixing taking place in this system at Re=10⁵ and 10⁶, for which DNS is presently not feasible. Thus the second achievement of this study is to quantify mixing taking place in this system over an Re range that changes by three orders of magnitude. We find that the background potential energy increases by about 67% when Re is increased from Re=10³ to Re=10⁶, within the computation period, with the most significant increase taking place from Re=3×10³ to Re=10⁵.  相似文献   

An Amplification Mechanism of Intraseasonal Long Rossby Wave in Subtropical Ocean   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Xiaopei?LinEmail author  Dexing?Wu  Qiang?Li  Jian?Lan 《Journal of Oceanography》2005,61(2):369-378

The satellite altimeter data reveal that intraseasonal long Rossby wave is amplified in the western part of subtropical ocean. Based on a two and half layer ocean model we infer that the intraseasonal long Rossby wave may be amplified by the baroclinic instability. According to the baroclinic instability criterion derived from the two and half layer model, we calculate the baroclinic instability area of the Subtropical North Pacific Ocean based on Levitus98 data. The baroclinic instability area is well in accord with the amplification area of the intraseasonal long Rossby wave, and this also proves that the baroclinic instability is the main amplification mechanism of the intraseasonal long Rossby wave in the subtropical ocean. The consistency between the baroclinic instability area and potential vorticity (PV) pool is further proved in this paper, therefore, we have confidence that the intraseasonal long Rossby wave is amplified in the PV pool. Due to the relatively large ocean basin and weak ventilation, the PV pool is much larger in the North Pacific Ocean than in the North Atlantic Ocean, and this is the reason for the difference of wave amplification areas of these two Oceans.  相似文献   

Interannual Variations of Sea Level at the Nansei Islands and Volume Transport of the Kuroshio Due to Wind Changes   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Masaki Kawabe 《Journal of Oceanography》2001,57(2):189-205

Interannual variations of sea level at the Nansei Islands and volume transport of the Kuroshio during 1967–95 are calculated by integrating variations carried by windforced Rossby waves. Effects of eddy dissipation and ocean ridges are considered. Ridge effect is inferred by comparing between the calculated and observed sea levels. The calculation is satisfactory to sea levels and Kuroshio transport for the whole period. They are mostly caused by Rossby waves forced by wind and modified by the ridges, and are due to barotropic wave primarily and the first baroclinic wave secondly. The calculated Kuroshio transport well represents variations of several-year scales with maximums in respective duration of the large meander (LM) of the Kuroshio, as well as bi-decadal variation that transport was small during the non-LM period of 1967–75 and large during the LM-dominant period of 1975–91. Mean volume transport of the subtropical gyre is estimated at 57 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s^–1) and divided by the Nansei Shoto Ridge into those of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (25.5 Sv) and a subsurface current east of this ridge (31.5 Sv). The Subtropical Countercurrent and a southward deep current east of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge are estimated at 16 Sv and 7 Sv, respectively. The calculated transports of the Kuroshio and other subtropical currents reach maximums at every El Niño event due to strong excitement of upwelling barotropic Rossby wave.  相似文献